A statistical study done by two Venezuelan scientists, Maria M. Febres Cordero and Bernardo Marquez, has determined that Hugo Chavez alleged victory in the recall referendum of 2004 was unlikely. The reports concludes by saying “the Venezuelan opposition has statistical evidence to reject the official results given by the CNE. The irregularities detected were observed consistently in numerous voting centers and the magnitude of the irregularities imply that the official results do not reflect the intention of voters with statistical confidence.”
The report, which has been peer reviewed by the International Statistical Institute (ISI) and the International Statistical Review, has been published in the ISI’s website, where a summary can be read. However given the importance of making such a report available to a wider audience I have decided to publish the entire report.
A statistical approach to assess referendum results: The Venezuelan recall referendum 2004
Henceforth the adjective illegitimate can be added to that of dictator, that is to say Hugo Chavez is Venezuela’s illegitimately elected dictator.